查看星期三, 23 4月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Apr 23 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 113 在 23 Apr 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 22-2100Z到 23-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity increased to high levels this period. Region 338 (N18W32) produced an M5/1n flare at 23/0106Z. Type II (513 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a 380 sfu tenflare were associated with this event. A partial halo CME was also detected on LASCO imagery. An M2/1f flare also occurred in this region at 23/1556Z. This complex region continues to develop in both size and magnetic complexity. Region 339 (N16W84) was quite active as it approaches the west limb. It produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C5 flare at 23/1213Z. No significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions. New Region 343 (N06E60) was numbered today.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 maintains potential for further M-class activity.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 22-2100Z 至 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speeds near 500 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Ongoing high speed coronal hole flow will likely be enhanced by transient flow over the next three days. Weak impact from the April 22, M2 flare and CME are possible on day one. There is a higher probability for CME impacts on days two and three from the M5 and associated CME that occurred early this period.
III. 事件機率 24 Apr 至 26 Apr
M級40%40%40%
X級05%05%05%
質子05%05%05%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       23 Apr 133
  預測的   24 Apr-26 Apr  135/140/145
  90天平均值        23 Apr 126
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 22 Apr  013/022
  估算值     Afr/Ap 23 Apr  015/020
  預測的    Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 24 Apr 至 26 Apr
A. 中緯度
可見30%40%30%
小風暴20%30%20%
特大強風暴05%10%05%
B. 高緯度
可見40%50%40%
小風暴30%35%30%
特大強風暴10%15%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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