查看星期二, 22 4月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Apr 22 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 112 在 22 Apr 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 21-2100Z到 22-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was low. Region 338 (N18W20) continued to develop in both size and magnetic complexity. It was responsible for most of the C-class activity this period, including a C4/Sf flare at 22/2011Z. There were some indications that a weak delta configuration was developing in this region. A Type II (960 km/s) radio sweep was detected at 22/0716Z, associated with a CME off the NE limb. A CME was also detected earlier in the period, associated with a B-class flare in Region 336 (N14E10). The largest region on the disk - Region 337 (S14E29), exhibited some decay and simplification over the past 24 hours. These CMEs do not appear to be Earthward directed. Minor C-class activity was observed in Regions 337 (S14E29), and 339 (N16W71). New Region 342 (N18W07) was numbered today.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a chance for a low level M-class flare from Region 337 or Region 338.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 21-2100Z 至 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. A high speed solar wind stream that began early on 21 April continues. Solar wind speeds exceeded 600 km/s early in the period, but gradually declined to below 550 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The most disturbed periods are expected late on day one through day two due to the anticipated arrival of a CME associated with the M2/1n flare on 21/1307Z. A return to predominantly unsettled conditions is expected on day three with occasional active periods possible.
III. 事件機率 23 Apr 至 25 Apr
M級25%25%25%
X級05%05%05%
質子05%05%05%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       22 Apr 132
  預測的   23 Apr-25 Apr  140/145/145
  90天平均值        22 Apr 126
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 21 Apr  012/021
  估算值     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  015/022
  預測的    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  020/030-020/025-015/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 23 Apr 至 25 Apr
A. 中緯度
可見40%40%30%
小風暴20%20%10%
特大強風暴05%05%01%
B. 高緯度
可見50%50%40%
小風暴30%30%15%
特大強風暴15%15%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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