查看星期五, 4 4月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Apr 04 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 094 在 04 Apr 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 03-2100Z到 04-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was low to moderate. Along with several C-class flare events, Region 324 (S08W40) produced a significant long-duration M1.9 flare at 2019 UTC. Several regions including 324, 321 (N08W68), and 323 (S07W87) continue to show considerable low-level activity.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next two days, dropping off to low when Region 324 (S11W40) makes its way off the visible disk.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 03-2100Z 至 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at low to active levels with periods of minor storming due to the continued influence of a high-speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of active conditions during the next 24 hours. The waning high-speed stream will decrease the geomagnetic field to quiet levels with isolated periods of unsettled on the second and third days.
III. 事件機率 05 Apr 至 07 Apr
M級45%35%25%
X級10%05%05%
質子10%05%05%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       04 Apr 153
  預測的   05 Apr-07 Apr  155/150/145
  90天平均值        04 Apr 135
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 03 Apr  011/014
  估算值     Afr/Ap 04 Apr  024/026
  預測的    Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  015/020-012/015-010/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 05 Apr 至 07 Apr
A. 中緯度
可見40%40%35%
小風暴20%15%10%
特大強風暴10%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見55%45%40%
小風暴30%15%15%
特大強風暴15%10%10%
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

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