查看星期二, 23 7月 2002歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Jul 23 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 204 在 23 Jul 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 22-2100Z到 23-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was high. Region 39 (S15E59) produced an X4/2b event at 23/0035 UTC with associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and an 1800 sfu Tenflare. A full-halo CME was visible in the SOHO/LASCO imagery with this event. This region now exceeds 900 millionths of white light area with a magnetic delta configuration. Another region of interest is Region 36 (S07W28). It also exceeds 900 millionths of white light with a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. Two new regions were numbered today as Regions 43 (N12E56) and 44 (S19E57).
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 36 and 39 both have potential to produce isolated major events.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 22-2100Z 至 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton event which began at 22/0655 UTC continues with the tentative maximum of 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC. The energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 24 July. Minor storm conditions are expected on 25 July with active to minor conditions on 26 July. These conditions are anticipated due to the X-class event observed today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for most of the period. The energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit are expected to remain at high levels for the next several days.
III. 事件機率 24 Jul 至 26 Jul
M級75%75%75%
X級25%25%25%
質子99%99%99%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       23 Jul 198
  預測的   24 Jul-26 Jul  195/195/200
  90天平均值        23 Jul 162
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 22 Jul  012/020
  估算值     Afr/Ap 23 Jul  015/015
  預測的    Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  015/015-030/040-020/030
VI. 地磁活動機率 24 Jul 至 26 Jul
A. 中緯度
可見25%40%30%
小風暴05%30%15%
特大強風暴01%10%05%
B. 高緯度
可見30%50%40%
小風暴10%40%20%
特大強風暴05%10%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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