查看星期五, 24 5月 2002歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 May 24 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 144 在 24 May 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 23-2100Z到 24-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9963 (N15E23) produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 24/0646 UTC and a few C-class flares. There were no significant changes noted in this region. An optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep occurred at 24/0322 UTC. Region 9957 (N11W32) continued to gradually decay, but remained moderately complex. Region 9960 (N14W09) showed no significant changes during the period, but retained a delta magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S22E09) appeared to be in a decay phase with a weakened delta magnetic configuration within its intermediate spots. New Region 9968 (S13E26) was numbered.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Isolated M-class flares are possible from Regions 9957, 9960, and 9961. There is also a slight chance for a major flare during the period.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 23-2100Z 至 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/1755 UTC ended at 24/1455 UTC. The maximum flux for this event was 820 pfu at 23/1055 UTC.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Active periods are possible during 25 May due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period. There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. 事件機率 25 May 至 27 May
M級50%50%50%
X級10%10%10%
質子10%10%10%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       24 May 189
  預測的   25 May-27 May  180/180/180
  90天平均值        24 May 184
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 23 May  052/054
  估算值     Afr/Ap 24 May  006/012
  預測的    Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  015/015-010/008-010/012
VI. 地磁活動機率 25 May 至 27 May
A. 中緯度
可見35%25%25%
小風暴20%10%10%
特大強風暴05%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見40%30%30%
小風暴20%15%15%
特大強風暴05%01%01%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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