查看星期四, 23 5月 2002歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 May 23 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 143 在 23 May 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 22-2100Z到 23-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was low. Region 9961 (S22E22) grew slowly as it produced a few minor C-class flares. The delta configuration is now apparent in the center of the group, as the leading spot simplified. Region 9957 (N10W19) decayed slightly but still retains a modest degree of magnetic complexity. Two new regions, 9966 (N10E34) and 9967 (N13E46) emerged.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9957 and 9961 are the most likely sites for isolated M-class flares. There continues to be a slight chance for a major flare event.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 22-2100Z 至 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to severe storm levels. The first of two shocks detected today passed ACE around 1000 UTC, as solar wind speeds increased from 400 to 600 km/s, causing a sudden impulse of 87 nT to be registered at Boulder at 1051 UTC. At approximately 1500 UTC, a second shock, boosting solar wind speeds to near 1,000 km/s for a short period, was seen at ACE. This perturbation caused a 26 nT sudden impulse at Boulder at 1545 UTC. This activity is thought to be an effect of the multiple CMEs observed to leave the sun yesterday. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/1755 UTC attained a tentative maximum of 820 pfu at 23/1055 UTC and continues in progress.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours as the current disturbance wanes. No additional shocks or CMEs are expected. The field should continue to calm to unsettled conditions by the end of the interval. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes should continue to slowly decline.
III. 事件機率 24 May 至 26 May
M級50%50%50%
X級10%10%10%
質子35%10%10%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       23 May 180
  預測的   24 May-26 May  175/170/170
  90天平均值        23 May 184
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 22 May  010/014
  估算值     Afr/Ap 23 May  045/050
  預測的    Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  025/030-015/015-010/010
VI. 地磁活動機率 24 May 至 26 May
A. 中緯度
可見45%40%30%
小風暴25%20%15%
特大強風暴25%10%05%
B. 高緯度
可見15%25%30%
小風暴25%30%20%
特大強風暴40%20%15%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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