查看星期三, 22 5月 2002歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 May 22 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 142 在 22 May 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 21-2100Z到 22-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. An M1/2f event was produced by Region 9960 (N14E19) at 2139 UTC. The flare was associated with a CME from the northeast limb. This event was followed by a long duration C9/1f flare from Region 9948 (S21W84) which began at 21/2314 UTC, reached maximum at 22/0030 UTC, and ended at 22/0128 UTC. This event was associated with a CME from the southwest limb. Subsequent to this was another long-duration event, a C5/Sf (maximum time at 0354) from the eruption of a long, north-south filament just east of 9948 (near S22W53). This flare showed classic parallel ribbons in H-alpha and was associated with a very fast, spectacular looking full-halo CME. The plane-of-sky velocity was estimated to be about 1500 km/s. The appearance of the CME in the coronagraph data indicates a southwesterly direction of the leading edge. Region 9957 (N10W04) continues to dominate the disk in terms of area and magnetic field strengths but is decaying and has been quiet. Region 9961 (S22E34) retains its complexity from yesterday and is growing slowly, but was also quiet. Two new sunspot groups were assigned today: Region 9964 (S15E08) and Region 9965 (S10E62).
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the next three days. The most likely sources for M-class events are 9957, 9960 (N14E19), and 9961. There continues to be a slight chance for a major flare or a proton producing flare.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 21-2100Z 至 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A weak shock passed the ACE spacecraft at about 21/2100 UTC and produced a sudden impulse at 21/2205 UTC which measured 27 nT on the Boulder magnetometer. The SI was followed by an isolated active period but conditions quickly dropped back to quiet to unsettled levels after 22/0000 UTC. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons began around 0800 UTC. Flux levels rose slowly and finally crossed event threshold at 1755 UTC. The event remains in progress with current levels at about 46 PFU. It is likely that these particles were accelerated by the fast shock observed today on the southwest limb at 0350 UTC.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for some active periods during the next 24 hours. The fast CME from the southwest limb associated with the erupting filament is expected to overtake the CME from the C9 flare, and the combined transient flow is expected to impact Earth sometime early on the 24th. Due to the apparent direction of the event, a direct hit is not expected, but it is likely that the eastern flank of the disturbance will impact the Earth. Activity levels are expected to be mostly active, but there is a chance for some isolated storm level activity. Conditions should subside to mostly unsettled with a few active periods by the third day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime in the next 24 hours.
III. 事件機率 23 May 至 25 May
M級55%55%55%
X級10%10%10%
質子99%10%10%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       22 May 181
  預測的   23 May-25 May  180/175/170
  90天平均值        22 May 184
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 21 May  012/014
  估算值     Afr/Ap 22 May  010/015
  預測的    Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  012/015-025/025-012/010
VI. 地磁活動機率 23 May 至 25 May
A. 中緯度
可見35%45%35%
小風暴15%25%20%
特大強風暴10%25%10%
B. 高緯度
可見40%15%25%
小風暴20%25%30%
特大強風暴15%40%20%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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