查看星期一, 22 4月 2002歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Apr 22 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 112 在 22 Apr 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 21-2100Z到 22-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9906 (S14W103), now well beyond the west limb, produced a C7 X-ray flare at 22/0019 UTC associated with a bright surge and an eruptive prominence. Region 9912 (N10W25) produced a C2/Sf flare at 22/1210 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 804 km/sec). Region 9912 was in a gradual growth phase. A weak magnetic delta configuration may have developed within its trailer spots. New Region 9917 (S30E45) was numbered.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There's a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9912.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 21-2100Z 至 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels occurred during 22/0300 - 0600 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 21/0155 UTC reached a peak of 22.9 pfu at 21/1025 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225 UTC reached a peak of 2520 pfu at 21/2320 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. Peak polar cap absorption associated with the proton event was estimated to be 16 dB (daytime) and 3.9 dB (nighttime).
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm levels on 23 April in response to yesterday's X1/partial-halo CME event. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 24 April as the disturbance winds down. Unsettled conditions are expected on the final day. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 23 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 24 April.
III. 事件機率 23 Apr 至 25 Apr
M級40%40%40%
X級05%05%05%
質子99%99%20%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       22 Apr 170
  預測的   23 Apr-25 Apr  170/175/175
  90天平均值        22 Apr 199
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 21 Apr  004/007
  估算值     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  013/015
  預測的    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  025/030-015/020-015/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 23 Apr 至 25 Apr
A. 中緯度
可見40%40%35%
小風暴20%10%05%
特大強風暴10%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見50%50%40%
小風暴30%20%10%
特大強風暴15%10%01%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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