查看星期日, 21 4月 2002歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Apr 21 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 111 在 21 Apr 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 20-2100Z到 21-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity has been high. Region 9906 (S14W90) produced a long-duration X1/1f flare at 0151 UTC which was accompanied by strong radio bursts, type II and type IV radio sweeps, and a partial halo CME. The CME moved extremely rapidly in the plane of the sky with a projected velocity of 2400-2500 km/s. The front of the CME appeared to be moving away from the west limb and therefore approximately perpendicular to the line of sight. The remainder of today's activity consisted of a few C-class events. A filament was observed to lift off the northeast part of the disk at 21/0012 UTC and was associated with a narrow CME from the northeast limb. Region 9912 (N10W12) has continued to grow and is currently the largest group on the disk now that 9906 has rotated behind west limb. 9912 was stable and quiet. Two new regions were assigned today: 9915 (N11E54) and 9916 (S17E71).
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9906 could contribute an M-class event during the next 24 hours, but will become less of a threat as it moves further behind the limb. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 9912.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 20-2100Z 至 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. A greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 21/0155 UTC in response to the X1 flare and continues in progress. The maximum flux observed so far was 23 PFU at 21/1025 UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 21/0225 UTC and also continues in progress. The maximum flux at greater than 10 MeV was 2210 PFU at 21/1315 UTC.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for most of tomorrow. However, an increase is expected late on the 22nd due to a glancing blow from today's partial halo CME. Conditions are expected to attain mostly active with some minor storm periods at high latitudes. There is a slight chance, however, for minor to major storm intervals if the CME should prove to be extraordinarily wide. Conditions should return to unsettled to active by the 24th. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should continue for at least 48 hours and the greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 12-24 hours.
III. 事件機率 22 Apr 至 24 Apr
M級35%25%20%
X級10%05%05%
質子99%99%20%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       21 Apr 173
  預測的   22 Apr-24 Apr  170/175/180
  90天平均值        21 Apr 200
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 20 Apr  030/062
  估算值     Afr/Ap 21 Apr  007/007
  預測的    Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  015/015-025/030-015/020
VI. 地磁活動機率 22 Apr 至 24 Apr
A. 中緯度
可見35%45%35%
小風暴20%25%20%
特大強風暴15%20%15%
B. 高緯度
可見25%30%25%
小風暴25%30%25%
特大強風暴20%25%20%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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