查看星期三, 17 4月 2002歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Apr 17 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 107 在 17 Apr 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 16-2100Z到 17-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9906 (S14W41) produced a long-duration M2/2n flare at 17/0824 UTC. This flare was associated with a 3000 sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz, Type II/IV radio sweeps, and an Earth-directed "halo" CME visible in LASCO images. The region appears to have retained its size and complexity following the flare. Eruptive limb activity (EPL, BSL, and flare) in the vicinity of Region 9905 (S15W90) occurred during and after the LDE event in 9906.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-class flares, possibly including a major flare, are expected in Region 9906.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 16-2100Z 至 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A shock was observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at 17/1022 UTC and was followed by an SI at ground magnetometers at 17/1109 UTC (57 nT at Boulder). This shock is believed to be associated with the LDE M1/CME which occurred on 15 April. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 17/1530 UTC. The maximum flux observed so far was 24 pfu at 17/1540 UTC. This event is believed to be associated with the LDE M2 discussed in Part IA.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels as the current disturbance recovers over the next 24 hours. Another disturbance at minor to major storm levels is expected to begin on 19 April in response to the LDE M2/CME which occurred on 17 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to end within the next 24 hours.
III. 事件機率 18 Apr 至 20 Apr
M級75%60%50%
X級10%10%05%
質子10%10%05%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       17 Apr 194
  預測的   18 Apr-20 Apr  190/185/180
  90天平均值        17 Apr 201
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 16 Apr  005/010
  估算值     Afr/Ap 17 Apr  035/055
  預測的    Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr  020/020-040/040-020/030
VI. 地磁活動機率 18 Apr 至 20 Apr
A. 中緯度
可見50%50%50%
小風暴20%30%20%
特大強風暴10%20%10%
B. 高緯度
可見60%20%60%
小風暴25%50%25%
特大強風暴15%30%15%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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