查看星期五, 22 3月 2002歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Mar 22 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 081 在 22 Mar 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 21-2100Z到 22-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9866 (S10W96) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 22/1114 UTC as it crossed the west limb. The flare was associated with a halo CME and a proton event at greater than 10 MeV. Region 9866 was in a slow decay phase during the last few days of its passage. Region 9878 (N08E54) produced a C8 X-ray flare at 22/0618 UTC. Minor growth may have occurred in this region. Region 9871 (S20W47) retained minor magnetic complexity near its leader spots, but was relatively stable. New Regions 9881 (S05W08) and 9882 (N15E74) were numbered.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated, low-level M-class flare during the period.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 21-2100Z 至 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at 22/2020 UTC in the wake of today's long-duration M1 flare. The event was in progress and slowly increasing at the close of the period with a reading of 10.5 pfu at 22/2100 UTC.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. However, there will be a chance for brief active levels on 25 March in response to today's CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 23 March.
III. 事件機率 23 Mar 至 25 Mar
M級40%40%40%
X級05%05%05%
質子99%01%01%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       22 Mar 172
  預測的   23 Mar-25 Mar  170/165/165
  90天平均值        22 Mar 212
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 21 Mar  005/008
  估算值     Afr/Ap 22 Mar  008/008
  預測的    Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  010/010-010/012-010/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 23 Mar 至 25 Mar
A. 中緯度
可見25%25%25%
小風暴10%10%10%
特大強風暴05%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見30%30%30%
小風暴15%15%15%
特大強風暴05%05%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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