查看星期一, 5 11月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Nov 05 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 309 在 05 Nov 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 04-2100Z到 05-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Four M-class events occurred during the period. The largest was an M2/1n flare from Region 9684 (N07W40) at 05/0915 UTC. This region remains the most active region on the visible disk and retains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. Region 9687 (S20E20) continues to become more complex, as several of its penless spots have acquired penumbra during the period. It also produced an M1/Sf flare at 05/0250 UTC. New Region 9690 (S18E71) is rotating onto the disk and is already showing high flare potential, having produced a C8.9/Sf event at 05/1808 UTC. It is currently being reported as a 6 spot group with an area of approximately 600 millionths. It will continue to grow in size and spot number as the entire region rotates into view.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high. Region 9684 remains capable of producing another major flare. Regions 9687 and 9690 are also capable of producing M-class events and have a slight chance of producing isolated major flare activity.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 04-2100Z 至 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that started on 04 November continued through out the period and flux levels continued to climb, closing out the day at 102 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton event also continued to escalate flux levels, closing the period at 17,000 pfu. Both proton events originated from the X1/3b flare from Region 9684, that occurred on 04/1620 UTC. Subsequent flares may have contributed to the continued proton flux increase. A polar cap absorption event remains in progress.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active to major storm levels on the first day of the forecast period. A coronal mass ejection (CME) from the X1 event on 04 November is expected to impact the geomagnetic field early on 06 November. Major storming is expected with isolated severe storming possible at higher latitudes. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to minor storming on the second day and quiet to active on the third. However additional CME's may have been produced by several long duration flares that occurred after the X1 event. It is nearly impossible to detect these events as the LASCO imagery has been degraded by the current proton storm. If there are subsequent CME's, the geomagnetic storming could continue into the second and third day of the forecast period.
III. 事件機率 06 Nov 至 08 Nov
M級80%80%80%
X級25%25%25%
質子99%99%99%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       05 Nov 235
  預測的   06 Nov-08 Nov  235/235/235
  90天平均值        05 Nov 207
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 04 Nov  004/007
  估算值     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  012/015
  預測的    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  060/075-030/030-015/012
VI. 地磁活動機率 06 Nov 至 08 Nov
A. 中緯度
可見30%50%35%
小風暴40%25%15%
特大強風暴30%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見20%25%25%
小風暴30%35%15%
特大強風暴50%35%15%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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