查看星期日, 4 11月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Nov 04 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 308 在 04 Nov 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 03-2100Z到 04-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity has been high. Region 9684 (N06W27) produced an X1/3b flare beginning at 1603 UTC, maximum at 1620 UTC, and ending at 1647 UTC. The event was accompanied by strong radio bursts, a type II sweep, and a type IV sweep. A CME was observed to enter the C2 field of view during the flare, with the leading edge just visible at 1635 UTC. The front edge moved quickly across C2 and exited somewhere between 1655 UTC and 1705 UTC. Region 9684 has grown and the leader and trailer spots merged during the past 24 hours, making the region a beta-gamma-delta group. Region 9687 (S20E35) continues to be a complex, beta-gamma group and produced a few C-class subflares. Region 9682 (N13W64) is still the largest group on the disk but could only muster a couple of subflares. A 10 degree filament just west of Region 9684 disappeared sometime between 03/2208 UTC and 04/0629 UTC.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class events are likely to occur during the next three days. There is a fair chance for an additional major flare from Region 9684, especially if new magnetic flux continues to emerge. Regions 9682 and 9687 also continue to pose a slight threat for major flare activity.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 03-2100Z 至 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. A greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 1650 UTC, shortly after today's X-class flare. Flux levels rose quickly initially, but began to level off around 1800 UTC, although they are still climbing slowly. The maximum 100 MeV flux observed so far is 56 pfu at 2035 UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 1705 UTC. This event also seems to be leveling off, and the maximum flux observed so far is 1180 pfu at 2040 UTC.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active tomorrow. Major storm conditions are likely to follow the arrival of a shock from today's solar event, sometime early on the 2nd day (06 November). The disturbance is expected to last for about 24 hours, and a decrease to mostly active conditions should occur on the third day. Today's greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 12 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should continue tomorrow, and is likely to get an enhancement of flux levels on the second day with the arrival of the interplanetary shock from today's solar event.
III. 事件機率 05 Nov 至 07 Nov
M級80%80%80%
X級25%25%25%
質子99%80%25%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       04 Nov 227
  預測的   05 Nov-07 Nov  220/215/210
  90天平均值        04 Nov 206
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 03 Nov  001/003
  估算值     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  007/008
  預測的    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  015/015-050/050-025/025
VI. 地磁活動機率 05 Nov 至 07 Nov
A. 中緯度
可見25%10%20%
小風暴15%15%35%
特大強風暴15%75%35%
B. 高緯度
可見25%05%15%
小風暴15%10%30%
特大強風暴15%80%35%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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