查看星期四, 1 11月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Nov 01 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 305 在 01 Nov 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 31-2100Z到 01-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity has been high due to five M-class events observed during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was an M3/Sf at 1210 UTC from newly numbered Region 9687 (S19E71). Region 9687 produced three additional M-class events and exhibited frequent brightenings throughout the day. An additional M-class event (M1/Sf) came from Region 9678 (N07W75) at 0653 UTC. Region 9682 (N11W22) continues to dominate the disk in terms of apparent size and magnetic complexity, and also exhibited occasional flare activity during the day, some of which were occurring at the same time as flare activity in Region 9687. SXI imagery clearly indicated, however, that new Region 9687 was the dominant contributor to the X-ray flux during the four M-class events mentioned previously.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class events should continue, with regions 9687 and 9682 being the main contributors to activity. There continues to be a chance for an isolated major flare event or proton producing event during the next three days.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 31-2100Z 至 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. Approximately five hours after yesterday's shock at 31/1352 UTC, the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward and maintained moderately strong negative values (-8 to -12 nT) from 31/1810 UTC until around 01/1710 UTC. This led to mostly active levels, with a minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC. At forecast issue time activity had declined to unsettled and Bz was weakly northwards.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III. 事件機率 02 Nov 至 04 Nov
M級90%90%90%
X級25%25%25%
質子20%20%20%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       01 Nov 236
  預測的   02 Nov-04 Nov  225/225/230
  90天平均值        01 Nov 204
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/009
  估算值     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  025/025
  預測的    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  012/012-012/010-010/010
VI. 地磁活動機率 02 Nov 至 04 Nov
A. 中緯度
可見25%25%20%
小風暴15%15%15%
特大強風暴05%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見25%25%20%
小風暴15%15%15%
特大強風暴10%10%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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