查看星期一, 1 10月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Oct 01 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 274 在 01 Oct 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 30-2100Z到 01-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was high today. A long-duration M9 flare occurred at 01/0515 UTC in the vicinity of Region 9628 (S22W91). This flare produced a full halo CME from LASCO imagery as well as a proton injection. Multiple discrete frequency radio emissions were associated with the event. EIT imagery depicted an excellent view of prominent loop structure that lasted through the X-ray enhancement. Region 9628 is currently exiting the visible disk. Four new region's were assigned today, Region's 9643 (S26W26), 9644 (N20W04), 9645 (S18E03), and 9646 (N12E42). All were at least of Beta class magnetic complexity.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are probable. The is also a chance for a major flare from Region 9632 (S21W73) as it begins to exit the disk.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 30-2100Z 至 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm levels due to a CME passage. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 01/0255 UTC and continued at time of issue. At the close of period the greater than 10 MeV flux was at 462 pfu and increasing. This proton event was in response to the M9 flare mentioned above.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next two days due to CME effects. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on the final day of forecast. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through most of the forecast period.
III. 事件機率 02 Oct 至 04 Oct
M級75%75%70%
X級20%20%10%
質子15%15%05%
碳核算金融聯盟In Progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       01 Oct 217
  預測的   02 Oct-04 Oct  210/205/205
  90天平均值        01 Oct 177
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 30 Sep  015/017
  估算值     Afr/Ap 01 Oct  035/040
  預測的    Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  020/020-030/030-015/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 02 Oct 至 04 Oct
A. 中緯度
可見50%35%40%
小風暴25%40%20%
特大強風暴20%25%10%
B. 高緯度
可見50%50%40%
小風暴35%35%25%
特大強風暴15%15%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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