查看星期一, 24 9月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Sep 24 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 267 在 24 Sep 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 23-2100Z到 24-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was high. Region 9632 (S19E19) produced an X2/2b flare at 1038 UTC. Significant discrete frequency radio bursts (i.e., 7500 sfu at 2695 MHz) accompanied the event, as well as a Type IV sweep which lasted for many hours. A full halo coronal mass ejection was seen by SOHO/LASCO. This region remains bright in H-alpha and still shows mixed polarities in its largest spot. Elsewhere on the disk occasional small flares occurred from a number of the 15 spotted regions visible. Two new regions were assigned, Region 9636 (N12E65) and Region 9637 (S14E71).
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9632 is still a threat to produce additional M and X class activity.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 23-2100Z 至 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Satellite proton events at greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV began shortly after the X2/2b flare. The greater than 10 MeV protons crossed threshold at 1215 UTC, and reached a tentative maximum of 1,020 pfu at 2040 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV event began at 1440 UTC and attained its tentative maximum of 10.6 pfu at 2020 UTC. Neither trace is declining at this writing. In addition a Polar Cap Absorption event began at 1315 UTC, and registered a peak value of 9.0 dB of absorption at 30 MHz at approximately 1935 UTC.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at major to severe storm levels beginning early on 26 September. The cme/flare event of earlier today is expected to spawn a strong disturbance expected to persist for 48 hours. The proton events currently occurring are likely to continue for the next 24 hours. The Polar Cap Absorption is expected to continue throughout the day on 25 September.
III. 事件機率 25 Sep 至 27 Sep
M級80%80%80%
X級30%30%30%
質子99%50%30%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       24 Sep 279
  預測的   25 Sep-27 Sep  285/290/285
  90天平均值        24 Sep 168
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 23 Sep  018/027
  估算值     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  010/012
  預測的    Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  015/020-080/100-040/040
VI. 地磁活動機率 25 Sep 至 27 Sep
A. 中緯度
可見30%05%10%
小風暴15%25%50%
特大強風暴05%65%25%
B. 高緯度
可見40%05%10%
小風暴20%25%40%
特大強風暴10%70%40%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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