查看星期四, 23 8月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Aug 23 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 235 在 23 Aug 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 22-2100Z到 23-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9591 (S17E53) produced frequent, impulsive mid-level C-class flares with minor radio emission. This region showed a magnetic delta structure in its trailing sunspots and a weak delta in its interior spots. Currently, Region 9591 spans about 30 degrees in longitude. However, it appeared likely this region was comprised of two abutted sunspot groups, which may be split into separate groups once this complex rotates further into view. Minor polarity mixing was evident in Regions 9582 (N28W33) and 9585 (N14W16), but both regions were inactive as they showed signs of decay. The remaining active regions were unremarkable. New Region 9593 (N00E01) was numbered.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a good chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9591. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this region.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 22-2100Z 至 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels as coronal hole effects subsided.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of the period increasing to unsettled to active levels during the rest of the period. There will be a slight chance for a proton event during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of the forecast period.
III. 事件機率 24 Aug 至 26 Aug
M級50%50%50%
X級10%10%10%
質子05%10%10%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       23 Aug 170
  預測的   24 Aug-26 Aug  175/180/180
  90天平均值        23 Aug 152
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 22 Aug  014/017
  估算值     Afr/Ap 23 Aug  009/010
  預測的    Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  010/010-012/012-015/012
VI. 地磁活動機率 24 Aug 至 26 Aug
A. 中緯度
可見20%25%30%
小風暴05%10%15%
特大強風暴01%01%05%
B. 高緯度
可見25%30%35%
小風暴10%15%20%
特大強風暴01%01%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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