查看星期三, 22 8月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Aug 22 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 234 在 22 Aug 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 21-2100Z到 22-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M1 X-ray flare peaked at 21/2157 UTC associated with moderate discrete radio bursts and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 740 km/sec). LASCO/EIT images indicated that Region 9591 (S17E63) was the source for this flare. It was also the likely source for an M1 X-ray flare that peaked at 22/1216 UTC. This region also produced occasional, impulsive low- to mid-level C-class flares during the period. Region 9591 continued to rotate into view as the day progressed and is now classed as a moderate-sized F-type spot group. Limb proximity prevented a detailed analysis of this region's magnetic structure, but recent activity suggests at least a moderate degree of magnetic complexity. No remarkable changes occurred in the remaining active regions, including newly numbered Region 9592 (S09W59).
IB. 太陽活動預報
Activity is expected to be moderate with a good chance for isolated M-class flares from Region 9591. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this region.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 21-2100Z 至 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels until 22/0300 UTC, then increased to unsettled to active levels for the remainder of the period. This activity was due to a high-speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative-polarity coronal hole.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the period. There will be a slight chance for a proton event during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of the period.
III. 事件機率 23 Aug 至 25 Aug
M級50%50%50%
X級10%10%10%
質子05%05%10%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       22 Aug 162
  預測的   23 Aug-25 Aug  170/175/180
  90天平均值        22 Aug 151
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 21 Aug  012/014
  估算值     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  016/018
  預測的    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  015/012-012/010-015/012
VI. 地磁活動機率 23 Aug 至 25 Aug
A. 中緯度
可見30%20%30%
小風暴15%10%15%
特大強風暴05%01%05%
B. 高緯度
可見35%25%35%
小風暴20%15%20%
特大強風暴10%05%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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