查看星期三, 4 4月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Apr 04 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 094 在 04 Apr 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 03-2100Z到 04-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was moderate due to four M-class events during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was an M2 at 1222Z. The event could not be attributed to a specific region on the Sun due to limited observations. The other M-class events were an M1/Sf at 03/2351Z from 9415 (S21E60), an M1/Sf at 1027Z from 9415 again, and an M1/Sf at 1159Z from Region 9401 (N24W70). Region 9393 (N18W90+) has rotated around the west limb. Region 9415 (S21E60) now is the largest, most active region on the disk with an area of 680 millionths in a DKO beta-gamma configuration. A 25 degree filament near N30E25 disappeared during the past 24 hours. Two CMEs were observed on the east limb at 03/1950Z and 04/0950Z: corresponding EIT images indicated back-sided sources behind the east limb.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate. There is a chance for an isolated major flare during the next three days, with higher probabilities during the next 24 hours while region 9393 is not too far beyond west limb.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 03-2100Z 至 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until a sudden impulse occurred at 1455Z. The impulse resulted from a shock in the solar wind which was initially observed at ACE at 1422Z. After the shock the solar wind displayed high speeds and strong fluctuations of the magnetic component Bz (peak values were around +/- 20 nT). This disturbed solar wind produced active to minor storm levels of geomagnetic activity. Bz stabilized into a steady northward orientation around 1830Z and geomagnetic activity levels seemed to be calming in response. The shock and subsequent enhanced solar wind flow are most likely to have been produced by the combined drivers from CMEs out of region 9393 on April 2. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues to be in progress. The shock passage produced a very slight enhancement of the particle flux levels. The flux at 04/2100Z was 113 pfu.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels during the next 24 hours. Solar wind speeds and temperatures are still enhanced, and there is still a possibility for more intervals of geoeffective solar wind during the next 24 hours. The second day is forecast to be active, based on the possible impact of a glancing blow from the CME that originated from region 9415 on 3 April. Mostly unsettled levels should prevail by day three.
III. 事件機率 05 Apr 至 07 Apr
M級80%65%65%
X級30%20%20%
質子99%15%15%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       04 Apr 205
  預測的   05 Apr-07 Apr  200/190/180
  90天平均值        04 Apr 167
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 03 Apr  005/005
  估算值     Afr/Ap 04 Apr  025/020
  預測的    Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  030/030-020/025-015/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 05 Apr 至 07 Apr
A. 中緯度
可見20%35%30%
小風暴30%25%20%
特大強風暴20%15%05%
B. 高緯度
可見20%35%30%
小風暴30%15%20%
特大強風暴25%25%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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