查看星期三, 28 3月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Mar 28 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 087 在 28 Mar 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 27-2100Z到 28-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9393 (N13E00) once again produced the most activity with four M-class events during the period. The first was an M1/Sf at 28/0158Z, the second was an M1/Sn at 28/0947Z, the third was an M4/Sf at 28/1240Z and the fourth was an M1/1f at 28/1909Z. Regions 9403 (S13E36) and 9397 (S09E19) produced upper C-class level events. Region 9393 continued growing and currently covers an area of over 2200 millionths in white light. The region is also maintaining a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Four new regions were numbered today, Region 9405 (S13W20), Region 9406 (N25E67), 9407 (N11E64), and 9408 (S08E38).
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9393 has the best potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 27-2100Z 至 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm. Minor to major storm conditions were observed from 28/0900Z to 28/1500Z. An earth-directed full halo CME was seen in LASCO/SOHO imagery. The halo occurred at approximately 28/1300Z and was associated with the M4/Sf event in Region 9393.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active conditions on the first day. Conditions are expected to increase during the middle of the period reaching minor to major storm levels due to a CME passage. Conditions are expected to decrease towards the end of the period to unsettled to active levels. There is the possiblilty for a proton event if Region 9393 produces a major flare event.
III. 事件機率 29 Mar 至 31 Mar
M級75%75%75%
X級20%20%20%
質子15%15%15%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       28 Mar 274
  預測的   29 Mar-31 Mar  270/265/255
  90天平均值        28 Mar 162
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 27 Mar  016/018
  估算值     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  024/030
  預測的    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  014/015-030/030-020/020
VI. 地磁活動機率 29 Mar 至 31 Mar
A. 中緯度
可見25%30%40%
小風暴10%40%30%
特大強風暴01%15%10%
B. 高緯度
可見30%20%30%
小風暴15%45%40%
特大強風暴05%25%20%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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