查看星期一, 18 9月 2000歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2000 Sep 18 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 262 在 18 SEP 2000 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 17-2100Z到 18-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A NUMBER OF C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED IN REGIONS 9165 (N14W40), 9166 (S14E24), AND 9167 (N12E57). DECAY IN REGION 9165 HAS SLOWED AND THE AREA RETAINS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 9166 CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY AND IS PRESENTLY AN E-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP WITH SOME MIXED POLARITIES. NEW REGION 9169 (N08E70) IS A LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP ROTATING AROUND THE EAST LIMB, AND IS ABUTTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF REGION 9167. SO FAR IT HAS NOT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT FLARES BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A CAPABLE REGION; HOWEVER, ITS LIMB PROXIMITY MAKES ANALYSIS DIFFICULT.
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 9165, 9166, 9167, AND 9169. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD OCCURRED FROM 17/2100 UTC TO 18/0300 UTC. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM, PUNCTUATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF CME MATERIAL. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CME.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO STORM LEVELS. THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND ANOTHER CME IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EITHER LATE ON SEP 18 OR EARLY ON SEP 19.
III. 事件機率 19 SEP 至 21 SEP
M級50%50%50%
X級05%05%05%
質子05%05%05%
碳核算金融聯盟GREEN
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       18 SEP 204
  預測的   19 SEP-21 SEP  210/215/220
  90天平均值        18 SEP 177
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 SEP  032/040
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 SEP  035/045
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 SEP-21 SEP  040/055-030/040-020/020
VI. 地磁活動機率 19 SEP 至 21 SEP
A. 中緯度
可見10%15%30%
小風暴30%30%15%
特大強風暴60%50%35%
B. 高緯度
可見10%15%30%
小風暴30%30%15%
特大強風暴60%50%35%
COMMENTS EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEB SITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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