查看星期六, 16 9月 2000歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2000 Sep 16 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 260 在 16 SEP 2000 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 15-2100Z到 16-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9165 (N13W14) PRODUCED AN M5/2B AT 16/0426 UTC. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS AND AN 1100 SFU RADIO BURST AT 2695 MHZ. IN ADDITION, THE LASCO INSTRUMENT ON THE SOHO SPACECRAFT OBSERVED AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME FOLLOWING THIS FLARE. REGION 9165 ALSO PRODUCED AN M3/2N AT 16/1428 UTC AS WELL AS SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX ON THE VISIBLE DISK BUT HAS SHOWN SOME PENUMBRAL DECAY AND MAGNETIC SIMPLIFICATION SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 9166 (S14E50) CONTINUED TO GENERATE SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION HAS UNDERGONE SOME GROWTH IN SPOT AREA AND NUMBER SINCE YESTERDAY. NEW REGION 9167 (N12E80) IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 9165 IS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR ENERGETIC FLARE ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE BZ COMPONENT OF THE IMF HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 0 AND -10NT FOR ABOUT THE LAST 24 HOURS WHILE WIND SPEED HAS BEEN BELOW 400 KM/S AND DENSITY ABOUT 10 P/CC. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT DROPPED BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD (10 PFU) AT 15/2140 UTC. CURRENT FLUX AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV REMAINS ENHANCED AT ABOUT 5 PFU BUT IS DROPPING SLOWLY.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STORM CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN BY THE THIRD DAY DUE TO THE M5/2B FLARE AND RELATED CME THAT OCCURRED EARLY ON SEP 16.
III. 事件機率 17 SEP 至 19 SEP
M級75%75%75%
X級10%10%10%
質子05%05%05%
碳核算金融聯盟GREEN
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       16 SEP 175
  預測的   17 SEP-19 SEP  180/185/185
  90天平均值        16 SEP 176
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 SEP  013/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP  015/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP  015/015-015/012-040/040
VI. 地磁活動機率 17 SEP 至 19 SEP
A. 中緯度
可見30%30%50%
小風暴15%15%30%
特大強風暴05%05%15%
B. 高緯度
可見30%30%50%
小風暴15%15%30%
特大強風暴05%05%15%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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