查看星期五, 15 9月 2000歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2000 Sep 15 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 259 在 15 SEP 2000 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 14-2100Z到 15-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9165 (N14E01) WAS THE MOST PRODUCTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP PRODUCING AN M2/SF AT 15/0532 UTC, AN M2/1N AT 15/1437 UTC, AND SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW IN SUNSPOT AREA AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 9166 (S14E62) IS THE OTHER DISK AREA OF NOTE AND IS A COMPACT D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. SO FAR 9166 HAS ONLY PRODUCED LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES.
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY IN REGION 9165 AND C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION 9166. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SHOCK IN THE SOLAR WIND WAS DETECTED BY THE NASA ACE SPACECRAFT AT ABOUT 15/0400 UTC. THE SHOCK HAD A MODERATELY STRONG INCREASE IN DENSITY BUT ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN REDIAL SPEED AND TOTAL IMF. BZ WAS STRONGLY POSITIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHOCK PASSAGE AND HAS JUST TURN SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 15/1900 UTC. EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHOCK IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CME AND ERUPTIVE FILAMENT ON SEPTEMBER 12. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT CONTINUES IN PROGRESS. THE CURRENT FLUX (2130 UTC) IS ABOUT 10 PFU AND IS SLOWLY DROPPING.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS AS THE CME STRUCTURE PASSES THE EARTH. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. 事件機率 16 SEP 至 18 SEP
M級50%50%50%
X級05%05%05%
質子05%01%01%
碳核算金融聯盟IN PROGRESS
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       15 SEP 159
  預測的   16 SEP-18 SEP  165/170/175
  90天平均值        15 SEP 177
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 SEP  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 SEP  010/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 SEP-18 SEP  010/015-010/010-010/010
VI. 地磁活動機率 16 SEP 至 18 SEP
A. 中緯度
可見15%15%15%
小風暴10%10%10%
特大強風暴01%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見15%15%15%
小風暴10%10%10%
特大強風暴01%01%01%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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