查看星期五, 28 7月 2000歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2000 Jul 28 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 210 在 28 JUL 2000 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 27-2100Z到 28-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 9090 (N15W83) PRODUCED TODAY'S ONLY M-CLASS FLARE, AN M1/SF AT 27/2342Z. THE REGION WAS QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS IT ROTATED AROUND THE WEST LIMB. REGION 9103 (N10E03) SHOWED GROWTH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT COULD ONLY PRODUCE A SUBFLARE. REGION 9097 (N09W55), CURRENTLY THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK, CONTINUED TO DECAY QUIETLY. CLOSER ANALYSIS OF YESTERDAY'S HALO CME USING AVAILABLE EIT AND H-ALPHA DATA INDICATE THAT THE TRANSIENT ORIGINATED FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE SUN.
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT, WITH REGIONS 9097 AND 9103 AS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INITIALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FIELD BECAME DISTURBED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TRANSIENT MATERIAL FROM THE CME OF 25 JULY. THE FIRST INDICATION OF THE TRANSIENT WAS A SHOCK AT ACE AT 0543Z, SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 0635Z (MEASURING 41 NT ON THE BOULDER MAGNETOMETER). THE SHOCK WAS FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO MODERATELY SOUTHWARD BZ FIELDS (-5 TO -15 NT) UNTIL 1318Z WHEN BZ INTENSIFIED TO STRONGLY NEGATIVE VALUES FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS (-15 TO -20 NT). MINOR STORM LEVELS (ESTIMATED KP'S OF 5) WERE SUSTAINED FOR 12 HOURS FROM 0600-1800Z. A GREATER THAN 10 PFU PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV WAS OBSERVED: PARTICLE FLUXES BEGAN TO RISE SLOWLY AFTER 0200Z AND ATTAINED THRESHOLD AT 1050Z. THE PEAK OF THE EVENT WAS 18 PFU AT 1130Z AND THE EVENT FELL BELOW THRESHOLD AT 1310Z.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS. NIGHTTIME SECTORS IN PARTICULAR MAY EXPERIENCE EFFECTS OF LOCAL SUBSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. 事件機率 29 JUL 至 31 JUL
M級30%30%30%
X級05%05%05%
質子05%05%05%
碳核算金融聯盟GREEN
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       28 JUL 158
  預測的   29 JUL-31 JUL  155/155/150
  90天平均值        28 JUL 189
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JUL  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUL  030/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUL-31 JUL  020/020-010/015-010/012
VI. 地磁活動機率 29 JUL 至 31 JUL
A. 中緯度
可見35%30%30%
小風暴30%15%15%
特大強風暴25%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見30%30%30%
小風暴30%15%10%
特大強風暴25%05%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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