查看星期五, 28 8月 1998歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 1998 Aug 28 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 240 在 28 AUG 1998 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 27-2100Z到 28-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 8307 (N32W39) CONTINUES TO SIMPLIFY. IT APPEARS TO STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED CLASS M EVENT. REGION 8319 (N19W15) CONTINUES TO GROW AND SHOW SIGNS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ACTIVE ARCH-FILAMENT SYSTEM EXTENDING THE LENGTH OF THE REGION. YOHKOH REPORTS THAT A POTENTIAL-LIKE LOOP STRUCTURE IS WELL DEVELOPED. SMALL GROUPS OF NEW SPOTS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ACROSS THE FACE OF THE VISIBLE DISK. OLD REGION 8293 APPEARS TO BE RETURNING AT S21 ON THE EAST LIMB. FILAMENTS HAVE DISAPPEARED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREA OF THE DISK.
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. FREQUENT FLARES CLASS C TO CLASS M ARE EXPECTED IN REGION 8319 AND AN ISOLATED CLASS M FLARE MAY OCCUR IN REGION 8307.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 27-2100Z 至 28-2100Z
GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE GEOMAGNETIC STORM HAS DECLINED RAPIDLY AND K-INDICES OF 3 AND 4 ARE PREVALENT AT MID-LATITUDE. THE REAL TIME SOLAR WIND DATA FROM ACE SHOWS A REGULAR WAVE-LIKE STRUCTURE IN THE BZ COMPONENT WITH A PERIOD OF ABOUT 30 MINUTES. THE STRUCTURE HAS BEEN QUIRE REGULAR FOR THE LAST 20 HOURS. THE ENERGETIC PARTICLES WITH ENERGY GREATER THAN 10 MEV HAVE DECLINED AND ARE HOVERING AT ABOUT 10 PFU. AN END TO THE EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE PRONOUNCED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NEUTRON MONITOR FLUXES HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS. GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GOES ARE NOW EXCEEDING A FLUX OF 1.0 E4, A LEVEL 10 TIMES THE ALERT THRESHOLDS.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE DISAPPEARANCE OF FILAMENTS IN THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS THAT COULD BRING ENHANCED ACTIVITY TO EARTH ON AUGUST 30 AND 31.
III. 事件機率 29 AUG 至 31 AUG
M級20%20%20%
X級05%05%05%
質子25%25%25%
碳核算金融聯盟GREEN
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       28 AUG 139
  預測的   29 AUG-31 AUG  135/135/135
  90天平均值        28 AUG 118
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 AUG  077/112
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG  022/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG  010/015-015/015-015/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 29 AUG 至 31 AUG
A. 中緯度
可見20%20%20%
小風暴01%10%10%
特大強風暴01%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見25%50%25%
小風暴10%15%15%
特大強風暴01%01%01%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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