查看星期四, 27 8月 1998歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 1998 Aug 27 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

::::::::::CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::::::: SDF 編號 239 在 27 AUG 1998 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 26-2100Z到 27-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE ONLY ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS AND SUBFLARES FROM REGIONS 8307 (N31W28) AND 8319 (N21W03). REGION 8307 CONTINUES ITS SLOW DECAY AND SIMPLIFICATION. FILAMENT ACTIVITY WITHIN THE REGION HAS DECREASED. REGION 8319 (N19W03) HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND DEVELOP. IT IS STILL SIMPLE AND SMALL IN SPOT AREA, BUT THE PLAGE AREA HAS GROWN. SUBFLARES AND ARCH FILAMENT SYSTEMS INDICATE THE REGION IS STILL EMERGING. THE REGION IS CLOSE TO OLDER REGION 8314 (N16E03) AND IF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES IN 8319, THE MERGER OF THE REGIONS MAY PRODUCE ACTIVITY AS A RESULT OF THEIR INTERACTION.
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. A SPORADIC CLASS M FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8307. THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF REGIONS 8314/8319 IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREQUENT SMALL FLARES WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 26-2100Z 至 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. MID-LATITUDE K-INDICES REACHED 7 AND 8 BETWEEN 27/0300 UT AND 27/1200 UT. THE FORBUSH DECREASE THAT BEGAN LATE ON 25 AUGUST CONTINUES, WITH NEUTRON MONITOR COUNTING RATES FROM THULE DEPRESSED BY ABOUT 6 PERCENT TODAY. ACE REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA HAS PROVIDED CONTINUOUS INFORMATION THROUGH THE PERIOD OF THE GEOMAGNETIC STORM. FROM 26/0600 UT THROUGH 26/2200 UT, THE ESTIMATED SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED STEADILY FROM ABOUT 400 KM/S TO APPROXIMATELY 900 KM/S, THEN DECLINED JUST AS STEADILY TO ABOUT 600 KM/S BY 27/0900 UT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE DENSITY REMAINED LESS THAN 10 /CM3 AND THE TEMPERATURE INCREASED FROM 500,000 K UP TO 1,000,000 K AT 26/2100 UT, THEN DOWN TO 20,000 AT 27/1300 UT. THE RESULT APPEARED TO BE A FAST, HOT, LOW-DENSITY STREAM. THE INTERPLANETARY BZ FIELD HAS REMAINED NEARLY FLAT AT ABOUT -10 TO -15 NANOTESLA MOST OF TODAY, BUT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF MOVING TOWARD LESS NEGATIVE VALUES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE EVENT THRESHOLDS THROUGHOUT 27 AUGUST. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENT WAS DECLARED OVER AT 26/2050 UT. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS FLUXES GREATER THAN 2 MEV, AS MEASURED BY THE GOES SATELLITE AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT, HAD DECREASED TO ABOUT 10 PFU EARLY ON 27 AUG AFTER PREVIOUSLY REACHING NEAR THE SEC ALERT THRESHOLD OF 1000 PFU ON PREVIOUS DAYS. SINCE 27/0900 UT, THE FLUXES HAVE BEEN INCREASING.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS BUT WITH DECLINING INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS BY THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MID-LATITUDE K-INDICES ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH VALUES OF 6 OR 7 DURING THE COMING WESTERN HEMISPHERE NIGHT TIME. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES GREATER THAN 2 MEV WILL REACH ALERT LEVELS BY THE TIME THIS FORECAST IS EFFECTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DECLINE BUT REMAIN ABOVE EVENT THRESHOLDS WELL INTO 27 AUGUST. THE CURRENT FORBUSH DECREASE IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN INTENSITY.
III. 事件機率 28 AUG 至 30 AUG
M級25%25%25%
X級10%10%10%
質子25%25%25%
碳核算金融聯盟GREEN
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       27 AUG 135
  預測的   28 AUG-30 AUG  135/135/135
  90天平均值        27 AUG 117
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 AUG  028/039
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 AUG  084/107
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 AUG-30 AUG  030/030-010/015-010/010
VI. 地磁活動機率 28 AUG 至 30 AUG
A. 中緯度
可見30%40%40%
小風暴30%10%10%
特大強風暴20%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見30%40%40%
小風暴40%10%10%
特大強風暴15%05%05%

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