查看星期三, 26 8月 1998歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 1998 Aug 26 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 238 在 26 AUG 1998 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 25-2100Z到 26-2100Z的活動分析

.SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. X-RAY LEVELS ARE LOW AND NO ENHANCEMENTS TO CLASS C LEVELS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ACTIVE REGION 8307 (N31 W15) CONTINUES TO CHANGE VERY SLOWLY. THE AREA HAS DECREASED AND THE NUMBER OF SPOTS APPEAR TO BE DECLINING AS WELL. IT IS CLASSED AS A DKO REGION WITH A BASIC BETA STRUCTURE AND A REMAINING HINT OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. AN ACTIVE FILAMENT CURLS AROUND THE CENTER OF THE REGION AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO AN OPEN AREA. A NEW REGION (8319, N21 E09) WITH AN ACTIVE ARCH-FILAMENT SYSTEM HAS EMERGED WITHIN THE SCATTERED, REMNANT PLAGE EAST OF REGION 8307. BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIONS, OLD, SPOTLESS REGION 8310 (N24 E11) HAS A SMALL ARCH-FILAMENT SYSTEM. TWO OTHER SMALL NEW SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE EMERGED AT S21 E03 (# 8318) AND N36 W 57 (# 8319).
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8307 APPEARS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SPORADIC EVENTS. IT APPEARS TO RETAIN THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CLASS M FLARES EVERY 2-3 DAYS AND ANOTHER CLASS X OR TWO BEFORE IT REACHES THE WEST LIMB OF THE SUN. THE EMERGENCE OF NEW ARCH-FILAMENT SYSTEMS IN THE SCATTERED PLAGE COVERING NEARLY 50 DEGREES IN LONGITUDE FROM 8307 INDICES THIS AREA MAY BE A SOURCE OF NEW SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE REGIONS IN FUTURE WEEKS.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 25-2100Z 至 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. A SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED AT 26/0651 UT. AFTER THE IMPULSE, MID-LATITUDE K-INDICES UP TO 5 WERE OBSERVED. ENERGETIC PARTICLE FLUXES INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SUDDEN IMPULSE, WITH THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX REACHING APPROXIMATELY 600 PFU AT 26/0330 UT. A FORBUSH DECREASE BEGAN AT ABOUT THE TIME OF THE SUDDEN IMPULSE AND REACHED APPROXIMATELY 10 PERCENT DECREASE BY 26/1200 UT. THE SOLAR WIND DATA FROM THE ADVANCED COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) INDICATED A PROBABLE SHOCK PASSED THE SATELLITE SHORTLY BEFORE THE SUDDEN IMPULSE AT EARTH. SINCE THAT TIME, THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY FROM ACE HAS INCREASED TO 900 KM/S, THE DENSITY HAS REMAINED LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY, AND THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD DOES NOT HAVE A CLEAR PATTERN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS INDICATION THAT THE FIELD HAS ROTATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 NANOTESLA AND THEN BACK TO VALUES THAT LEAVE IT IN THE ECLIPTIC PLANE.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS. THE PRESENT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE INTENSE AS CONDITIONS CHANGE IN THE SOLAR WIND AND LOCAL NIGHT-TIME EFFECTS WORK TOGETHER TO ENHANCE K-INDICES. VALUES AS HIGH AS 7 ARE PROBABLE WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER VALUES AS WELL.
III. 事件機率 27 AUG 至 29 AUG
M級35%35%35%
X級15%15%15%
質子25%25%25%
碳核算金融聯盟GREEN
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       26 AUG 127
  預測的   27 AUG-29 AUG  125/125/125
  90天平均值        26 AUG 117
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 AUG  008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 AUG  026/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 AUG-29 AUG  060/065-025/030-010/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 27 AUG 至 29 AUG
A. 中緯度
可見20%40%30%
小風暴30%30%20%
特大強風暴40%15%05%
B. 高緯度
可見10%20%40%
小風暴50%40%30%
特大強風暴35%25%16%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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