查看星期五, 31 7月 1998歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 1998 Jul 31 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 212 在 31 JUL 1998 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 30-2100Z到 31-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THREE NOTABLE FLARES OCCURRED. THE FIRST WAS A C1 PEAKING AT 31/0345Z AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE INTENSITY TYPE II/IV SWEEP EVENTS. ALTHOUGH NO OPTICAL FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED, ENHANCED PLAGE OBSERVED IN REGION 8280 (S24W54) SHORTLY AFTER THIS FLARE MAY SUGGEST ITS ORIGIN. THE SECOND FLARE OF NOTE WAS A LONG-DURATION C2/2F AT 31/0538Z IN REGION 8283 (N27E16). THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 12 DEGREE DSF AND STRONG TYPE II SWEEP. THE THIRD FLARE WAS A B7 AT 31/1540Z ASSOCIATED WITH FILAMENT ACTIVATION AND PARTIAL ERUPTION IN REGION 8282 (N30W48). NEW REGIONS 8289 (N22W63), 8290 (N17E63), AND 8291 (S23E09) WERE NUMBERED. REGION 8290 PRODUCED THE ONLY OTHER OPTICAL FLARE REPORTED, A SF (NO X-RAY OUTPUT) AT 31/1605Z.
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8280, 8282, AND 8290. REGION 8282 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE BEFORE ITS DISK DEPARTURE.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 30-2100Z 至 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO STORM LEVELS. ACE RTSW DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE EARTH'S MAGNETOSPHERE IS REACTING TO SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR WIND CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH DENSITY (20-70 P/CC), SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SPEED (420 KM/S), AND VARIABLE BZ (+/- 12 NT). THE NATURE OF THIS STRUCTURE (TRANSIENT OR NOT) IS NOT CLEAR FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SOLAR EVENTS WHICH WERE OBSERVED TODAY (DSFS AND TYPE II/IV SWEEPS) MAY INDICATE THE OCCURRENCE OF CMES WHICH COULD AFFECT ACTIVITY LEVELS AT THE END, OR JUST OUTSIDE, OF THE 3-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
III. 事件機率 01 AUG 至 03 AUG
M級15%10%05%
X級01%01%01%
質子01%01%01%
碳核算金融聯盟GREEN
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       31 JUL 114
  預測的   01 AUG-03 AUG  112/110/108
  90天平均值        31 JUL 110
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUL  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JUL  024/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 AUG-03 AUG  015/015-010/012-010/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 01 AUG 至 03 AUG
A. 中緯度
可見20%15%15%
小風暴10%01%01%
特大強風暴05%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見25%15%15%
小風暴15%05%05%
特大強風暴10%05%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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