查看星期一, 4 5月 1998歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 1998 May 04 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF 編號 124 在 04 MAY 1998 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 03-2100Z到 04-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. AT 03/2129Z AN M1/1B TENFLARE (810 FLUX UNITS, 8 MINUTES DURATION) ACCOMPANIED BY A MAJOR TYPE IV SWEEP, WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1B FLARE IN REGION 8210 (S17W50) AND A SIMULTANEOUS SUBFAINT FLARE IN REGION 8214 (N27E18). SYMPATHETIC FLARING HAS BEEN A CHARACTERISTIC OF THESE TWO WIDELY SEPARATED REGIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. REGION 8210 HAS FRAGMENTED AND SHOWN CONSIDERABLE DECAY, BUT REGION 8214 IS STILL GROWING IN WHITE LIGHT ALTHOUGH IT HAS NOT DEVELOPED THE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGETIC EVENTS. AN ACTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WAS OBSERVED, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE BASED ON THE COMBINED FLARE POTENTIAL IN REGIONS 8210 AND 8214. THE PROBABILITY OF X-CLASS ACTIVITY HAS LESSENED WITH THE RECENT SIMPLIFICATION OF REGION 8210, BUT ADDITIONAL GROWTH IN REGION 8214 COULD BE A PRECURSOR TO NEW MAJOR EVENTS.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 03-2100Z 至 04-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ASSUMED TO BE RELATED TO COMPLEX SOLAR WIND STRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF ENERGETIC SOLAR EVENTS BEGINNING ON 29 APRIL, AND ESPECIALLY AN X1 X-RAY EVENT THAT REACHED MAXIMUM 02/1342 UT. A SHOCK PASSED THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT APPROXIMATELY 04/0229 UT THAT WAS OBSERVED AT EARTH APPROXIMATELY 30 MINUTES LATER. THEREAFTER, A TWO-HOUR PERIOD OF VERY STRONG (ABOUT 40 NT) SOUTHWARD SOLAR WIND MAGNETIC FIELD WAS OBSERVED, RESULTING IN K INDICES OF 8 IN BOULDER BETWEEN 03-09 UT AND REPORTS OF AURORAL SIGHTINGS IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. THE ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 02/1405 ENDED 04/0310 UT.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS AT STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE IT IS CLEAR THAT THE LEADING PORTION OF THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1 FLARE HAS ARRIVED, IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHETHER THE CORE OF THE EJECTION WILL YET ARRIVE. THEREFORE, STORM LEVEL WARNINGS ARE ADVISED THROUGH 5 MAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO END BY 7 MAY UNLESS NEW SOLAR EVENTS OCCUR.
III. 事件機率 05 MAY 至 07 MAY
M級50%50%50%
X級10%10%10%
質子10%10%10%
碳核算金融聯盟YELLOW
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       04 MAY 121
  預測的   05 MAY-07 MAY  135/140/145
  90天平均值        04 MAY 105
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAY  037/057
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAY  086/100
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAY-07 MAY  050/060-025/045-010/025
VI. 地磁活動機率 05 MAY 至 07 MAY
A. 中緯度
可見10%30%20%
小風暴20%25%05%
特大強風暴60%20%01%
B. 高緯度
可見10%30%50%
小風暴25%30%20%
特大強風暴65%20%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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