查看星期一, 16 3月 1998歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 1998 Mar 16 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 075 在 16 MAR 1998 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 15-2100Z到 16-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORROLATED M-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED: AN M2 WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS AT 15/2141Z AND AN M1 AT 16/0102Z. NO SOON SITES WERE OBSERVING THE SUN DURING THE EVENTS BUT REGION 8179 (S22W17) IS THE LIKELY SOURCE. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS FLARES INCLUDING A C7/1N AT 16/1157Z AND A C6/1F AT 1714Z. THE REGION APPEARS TO HAVE MATURED NOW AS AN EKC, 50 SPOT BETA GAMMA GROUP WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF 800 MILLIONTHS. THE WEAK DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS NO LONGER APPARENT. CORONAL INSTRUMENTS ON THE SOHO SATELLITE OBSERVED A HALO/CME OFF THE SE LIMB BEGINNING AT 15/1930Z. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE THE MOST IMPULSIVE OF REGION 8179'S FLARES - YESTERDAY'S M1/1B. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 8179 HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY; HOWEVER, IT REMAINS A LARGE AND COMPLEX REGION, UNDERGOING FREQUENT CHANGES IN SUNSPOT CONFIGURATION. GOOD POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 15-2100Z 至 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. A MINOR DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S HALO/CME IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
III. 事件機率 17 MAR 至 19 MAR
M級50%50%45%
X級15%15%10%
質子15%15%10%
碳核算金融聯盟GREEN
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       16 MAR 124
  預測的   17 MAR-19 MAR  124/122/120
  90天平均值        16 MAR 096
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAR  012/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAR-19 MAR  010/012-010/008-015/012
VI. 地磁活動機率 17 MAR 至 19 MAR
A. 中緯度
可見15%20%30%
小風暴05%05%15%
特大強風暴01%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見20%25%40%
小風暴05%05%20%
特大強風暴01%01%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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