Diskussion av prognoserat rymdväder

Datum av rapporten: 2017 Nov 19 0030 UTC
Skapad av NOAA SWPC och bearbetad av SWL

Solaktivitet

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna
Solar activity was very low. Region 2687 (S09E18, Hrx/alpha) continued to decay while Region 2688 (N11, L=238) returned to plage. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Prognos
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flaring throughout the forecast period (19-21 Nov).

Energirika partiklar

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 2,355 pfu at 18/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
Prognos
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solvind

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated a return to ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) remained below 5 nT while the Bz component was variable. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from 450 km/s to near 390 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly positive.
Prognos
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed over the next three days (19-21 Nov) due to CH HSS influences. A CIR is expected ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS on day one (19 Nov). Enhancements are expected to persist over day two (20 Nov) and begin to wane by day three (21 Nov).

Geospace

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Prognos
The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to active levels on day one (19 Nov) due to the onset of CH HSS influences. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist over days two and three (20-21 Nov) as CH HSS effects persist.
Enligt den aktuella datan finns det ingen chans för norrsken på medelhöga breddgrader

Senaste nytt

Dagens rymdväder

Norrskensaktivitet Svag Stark
Höga breddgrader 30% 35%
Medelhöga breddgrader 15% 1%
Prognoserad Kp max 4
Solaktivitet
M-klassutbrott 1%
X-klassutbrott 1%
Månfas
Nymåne

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Rymdvädersfakta

Senaste X-utbrottet:10/09/2017X8.2
Senaste M-utbrottet:20/10/2017M1.0
Senaste geomagnetiska stormen:08/11/2017Kp6 (G2)
Dagar utan solfläckar i 2017:81
Senaste dag utan solfläckar:13/11/2017

I dag i historien*

Solutbrott
12013X1.0
22003M1.7
32000C9.1
42003C9.1
52003C8.8
ApG
1199422G1
2200120
3200214
4200312
5199912
*sedan 1994