Viewing archive of lördag, 14 juni 2014
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2014 Jun 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 165 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Jun 2014IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1929Z from the east limb. There was a Type II radio sweep (est 396
km/s) with the flare and a CME was later observed on emerging from the
east limb. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (15 Jun, 16 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (17 Jun).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
425 km/s at 14/1344Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/0000Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/0016Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Jun, 16 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Jun). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on day one (15 Jun), have a chance of crossing
threshold on day two (16 Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (17 Jun).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Jun till 17 Jun
| M-klass | 60% | 55% | 45% |
| X-klass | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Proton | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 Jun 144 Prognoserat 15 Jun-17 Jun 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 139
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Jun 006/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 14 Jun 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 009/011-009/010-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Jun till 17 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 30% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/19 | M1.0 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/16 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |