Viewing archive of fredag, 17 maj 2013
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2013 May 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 137 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 May 2013IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
17/0857Z from Region 1748 (N12E23). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels with a chance for X-class flares on days one,
two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
431 km/s at 17/0120Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1927Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2126Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 41 pfu at
17/1720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 May), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (19 May) and quiet to active levels on day three
(20 May). Protons are expected to continue above threshold levels on
days 1-3 (18-20 May).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 May till 20 May
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 99% | 95% | 90% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 May 136 Prognoserat 18 May-20 May 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 17 May 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 May 012/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 May 010/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 008/008-017/034-012/016
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 May till 20 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 30% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 20% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 75% | 40% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/25 | M1.3 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 133.9 +26.6 |