Viewing archive of torsdag, 1 november 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Nov 01 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 306 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Nov 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of a few B-class events; the largest was a B7 at 1505Z from Region
1598 (S11W77). New Region 1603 (N08W18) emerged on the disk and is a
small, simple bipolar region. All the other regions on the disk were
small and void of activity.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours, with some isolated storm periods at high latitudes.
Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed continued
driving from a coronal mass ejection; the interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component turned southward at about 0346Z and attained
sustained maximum levels of about -12 nT for several hours. By the
end of the period Bz had weakened to values around -5 nT. Initial
solar wind velocity peaked at about 370 km/s and had declined to
about 310 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the first day (02 Nov) as the
current disturbance subsides. Quiet levels are expected to prevail
for the second and third days (03-04 Nov).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Nov till 04 Nov
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 Nov 098 Prognoserat 02 Nov-04 Nov 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 01 Nov 014/019 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 007/010-007/007-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Nov till 04 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 10% | 05% |
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