Viewing archive of torsdag, 25 oktober 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Oct 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 299 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Oct 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 1598 (S12E18)
produced a few low-level C-class events throughout the period, and
remains the most magnetically complex region on the disk. Although
Region 1598 continues to decay, a weak Delta magnetic configuration
was still observed in the regions trailer spots. Region 1596
(N07W21) is a moderately sized region with some magnetic complexity,
but did not produce any flares during the period. The other regions
on the disk were either stable or decaying.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(26 - 28 Oct) with Region 1598 the most likely source.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, was predominately steady
around 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (26 - 28 Oct).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Oct till 28 Oct
| M-klass | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| X-klass | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Oct 130 Prognoserat 26 Oct-28 Oct 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Oct 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Oct 003/004 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Oct till 28 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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