Viewing archive of fredag, 19 oktober 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Oct 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 293 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Oct 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar Activity was low. Multiple low-level C-class
flares occurred, including a C3 flare at 19/2052Z from an
un-numbered region beyond the southeast limb. Region 1596
(N08E60), an Eko/Beta-Gamma spot group, showed intermediate spot
growth and was the most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk. Several CMEs were observed on LASCO C2 imagery, however, none
are believed to be Earth-directed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare during the
forecast period (20-23 October).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steadily decreased from
approximately 600 km/s to near 400 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly positive with maximum
deflections near +/-2 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (20 October). Days 2 and 3 (21-22
October) should see an increase to quiet to unsettled levels due to
the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Oct till 22 Oct
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Oct 141 Prognoserat 20 Oct-22 Oct 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Oct 004/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/004 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Oct till 22 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
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