Viewing archive of måndag, 15 oktober 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Oct 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 289 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Oct 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were several C-class
events during the last 24 hours. The largest of these was a
long-duration C4 at 1542Z from newly numbered Region 1593 (N17E78).
Region 1593 was the dominant producer of C-class level activity
although Region 1591 (N07E32) also contributed. Region 1591 showed a
slight growth trend during the period. New Region 1594 (S26E61) was
numbered today and is a small, simple bipolar region. The other
numbered regions on the disk were stable or decaying.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event from either Region 1591
or Region 1593.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The solar wind velocity at the ACE spacecraft showed a steady
downward trend from initial values around 495 km/s to end-of-day
values near 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Oct till 18 Oct
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Oct 137 Prognoserat 16 Oct-18 Oct 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Oct 020/020 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Oct 008/009 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Oct till 18 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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