Viewing archive of fredag, 17 augusti 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Aug 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 230 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Aug 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M2 flare was observed
on the northeast limb at 17/1319Z. A coronal mass ejection (CME)
was later observed in LASCO C3 imagery emerging from the northeast
limb around 17/1354Z. An M1 flare followed at 17/1720Z from the
same vicinity. The M1 flare was accompanied by a Tenflare (140sfu).
New region 1547 (N05E21) was numbered today and classified as a Cso
type group with beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1543 (N24W59)
remained the largest group on the disk and was classified as a Cko
type group with beta magnetic characteristics.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels were observed during the 00-03Z synoptic period. The
remainder of the day saw quiet to active conditions. The active
period was associated with effects from a CME which occurred on 13
August.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18-20
August) with lingering effects from a CME and the arrival of a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Aug till 20 Aug
| M-klass | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Aug 095 Prognoserat 18 Aug-20 Aug 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Aug 010/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Aug 011/013 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 009/012-010/012-011/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Aug till 20 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 25% | 25% |
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