Viewing archive of torsdag, 2 augusti 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Aug 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 215 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Aug 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1532 (S18W28) and 1535
(N17E24) produced C-class flares; the largest was a C1 at 0456Z. An
additional C1 event was observed at 1310Z off the west limb (near
old Region 1526). A coronal mass ejection was associated with the
behind-limb event, but is not expected to be geoeffective. New
Region 1539 (S22E60) was numbered and is a small bipolar group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity began the period at quiet levels. A
transient from the 28 July CME arrived at the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 02/0954Z, producing active to minor storm activity
levels from 02/1200Z through the end of the analysis period. Bz was
continuously negative multiple times throughout the period, peaking
at -12.3 nT at 02/1220Z. Solar wind showed a slight increase to 496
km/s at 02/1938Z and has since subsided.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (03 August) followed by
mostly quiet levels on days 2 and 3 (04-05 August).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Aug till 05 Aug
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 Aug 135 Prognoserat 03 Aug-05 Aug 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Aug 007/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 Aug 013/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Aug till 05 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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