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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 196 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Jul 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1521 (S21W47) produced an M1/1f x-ray event at 0458Z. As well as being partially responsible for todays M-class flare, Region 1520 (S17W35) also produced a C2/Sf event at 1410Z with an associated 150 sfu Tenflare. Elsewhere on the solar disk, Region 1519 (S16W56) and Region 1523 (S28E04) grew both in area and magnetic complexity, however, both have remained quiet and stable. No Earth directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the next three days (15-17 July) as Region 1520 and Region 1521 continue to evolve.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels until around 1811Z, when a sudden impulse of 27 nT was observed by the Boulder magnetometer. 43 minutes earlier, at 1728Z, measurements made by the ACE spacecraft indicated a shock arrival. Solar wind speeds increased from 350 km/s to around 630 km/s and the IMF (total field) increased from 4 nT to around 17 nT, with extended periods of the Bz component hovering around -12 nT. All of these signatures are congruent with the arrival of a CME at ACE and later here at Earth. After the arrival of the CME, an increase from quiet to minor storm levels was observed. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began, reached a peak of 96 pfu at 12/2225Z, and is still in progress. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with a slight chance for minor storms on day one (15 July), as CME effects continue. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on days two and three (16-17 July).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Jul till 17 Jul
M-klass70%70%70%
X-klass15%15%15%
Proton99%50%20%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       14 Jul 148
  Prognoserat   15 Jul-17 Jul  140/130/120
  90 Day Mean        14 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Jul  004/003
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/018
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  015/022-007/008-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Jul till 17 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%15%05%
Små stormförhållanden15%05%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden25%20%05%

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Senaste X-utbrottet:10/09/2017X8.2
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