Viewing archive of torsdag 12 juli 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jul 12 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 194 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Jul 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z

Solar activity was high. At 12/1649Z, a long-duration X1/2b flare was observed from Region 1520 (S16W09). The event was visible in GONG H-alpha imagery as a bright ribbon flare that erupted along the region?s long E/W oriented inversion line. Associated with this event were Type II (1268 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions along with an 800 sfu Tenflare. Limited satellite imagery indicated a CME was associated with this event. STEREO Behind COR2 imagery observed a CME lifting off the west limb, first visible at 12/1710Z. Further analysis of this CME is ongoing. During the past 24 hours, Region 1520 grew in both area and spot count and maintained a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1521 (S21W21) also grew in area and spot count and remained a beta-gamma magnetic classification. New Regions 1522 (N13W21) and 1523 (S27E31) emerged on the disk as simple bi-polar spot groups.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days (13 - 15 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with isolated high latitude major storm intervals from 11/0600 - 1200Z. ACE solar data indicated wind velocities decreased steadily through the period from 500 km/s to near 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded the 10 pfu event threshold at 12/1835Z. At the time of this report, flux levels were at 35 pfu and rising. The greater than 100 MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced, but below event threshold levels of 1 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for day one (13 July). Unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm intervals, are expected on days two and three (14 - 15 July) as effects from the 12 July CME are expected to become geoeffective.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Jul till 15 Jul
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass35%35%35%
Proton99%99%50%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       12 Jul 165
  Prognoserat   13 Jul-15 Jul  165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        12 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Jul  010/012
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 12 Jul  009/011
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  006/008-015/018-013/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Jul till 15 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%40%35%
Små stormförhållanden05%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%10%15%
Små stormförhållanden25%30%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden25%55%45%

Gå till översikt idag

Stöd SpaceWeatherLive.com!

För att vara tillgängliga vid stora norrskensutbrott måsta vi ha kraftiga servrar som kan hantera alla besökare. Donera och stöd vårt projekt, så att vi kan finnas online även under stora stormar!

64%

Rymdvädersfakta

Senaste X-utbrottet10/09/2017X8.2
Senaste M-utbrottet29/05/2020M1.1
Senaste geomagnetiska stormen20/04/2020Kp5 (G1)
Fläckfria dagar
Last 365 days309 dagar
2020147 dagar (77%)
Current stretch5 dagar

I dag i historien*

Solutbrott
12000M5.7
22003M3.6
32012M2.0
42000M1.9
52000M1.8
ApG
1200557G2
2201326
3200020G1
4201915G1
5201212
*sedan 1994

Sociala medier