Viewing archive of torsdag, 5 juli 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jul 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 187 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Jul 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W36) produced
an M6/1b at 05/1144Z along with several low-level M-class flares.
The region continued to grow slightly in areal coverage and
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1513
(N15W52) grew as well but did not produce any further M-class
activity since yesterdays report.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares for the next three days
(06-08 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period due to residual effects from a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS). Solar wind speed decreased throughout the period to
approximately 475 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (06-07 July) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions are
likely on day three (08 July), with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods, due to effects from the CME associated with the M1/2n
flare observed at 04/1639Z from Region 1513.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Jul till 08 Jul
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Jul 165 Prognoserat 06 Jul-08 Jul 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 121
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Jul 011/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Jul 009/013 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 009/008-007/012-017/022
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Jul till 08 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 30% | 55% |
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