Viewing archive of onsdag, 4 juli 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jul 04 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 186 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Jul 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1515 (S17W23) produced an M5/2b flare at 04/0955Z along with occasional low-level M-class flares including an M2/Sn at 04/0437Z associated with a 150 sfu Tenflare. Spot and penumbral development was evident in the leading half of the region and it retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with the flare activity in Region 1515, but the bulk of the ejecta was directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1513 (N17W36) produced an M1/2n flare at 04/1639Z associated with Types II (estimated shock velocity 807 km/s) and IV radio sweeps and a 200 sfu Tenflare. This event was also associated with a CME that may have had an Earthward component, but further analysis will be required to determine potential geoeffectiveness. Region 1513 showed no significant changes and retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 1518 (N09E65) and 1519 (S14E76) rotated into view and were numbered late in the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate through the period (05 - 07 July) with a chance for an isolated X-class flare from Region 1515.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with active periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar wind data indicated Earth remained within a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds were in the 463 to 601 km/s range and IMF Bz was variable in the +6 to -5 nT range. Todays observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux reading (163 sfu) was flare-enhanced. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (05 - 07 July) with a chance for active levels as the CH HSS gradually subsides. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to significantly disturb the field.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Jul till 07 Jul
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       04 Jul 163
  Prognoserat   05 Jul-07 Jul  155/160/160
  90 Day Mean        04 Jul 121
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Jul  011/011
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  010/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  007/008-009/008-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Jul till 07 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%20%25%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden30%15%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden30%10%30%

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