Viewing archive of onsdag, 6 juni 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jun 06 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 158 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Jun 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1494 (S18W06) produced an M2/1b at 06/2006Z associated with Type II (est. speed 1148 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. An associated CME was first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 06/2036Z. Further analysis will be conducted as more images become available to determine geoeffectiveness. A filament eruption was observed in SDO AIA 193 imagery around 05/1945Z near N12W10. The CME was first visible in STEREO COR 2 imagery at 05/2039Z. The majority of the ejecta appears to be north of the ecliptic plane, however, there is a weak Earth-directed component. A model run is in progress to determine geoeffectiveness. The Penticton 10 cm Flux value was estimated due to flare enhancement.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next three days (07-09 June).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active for the past 24 hours due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on day one (07 June) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (08-09 June) as effects from the CH HSS begin to subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Jun till 09 Jun
M-klass15%15%15%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       06 Jun 140
  Prognoserat   07 Jun-09 Jun  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        06 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Jun  015/021
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 06 Jun  013/016
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  011/015-007/012-006/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Jun till 09 Jun
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%20%10%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden25%25%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden40%30%15%

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