Viewing archive of tisdag, 22 maj 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 May 22 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 143 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 May 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1484 (N10W43) had
slight growth in its intermediate spots. Region 1482 (N14W71) had
slight decay in its trailing spots. New Region 1488 (N12E55) was
numbered today. At approximately 22/0205Z, a filament eruption was
observed in the SW quadrant near center disk. STEREO B COR 2
imagery showed a faint CME that appeared to be slightly south of the
ecliptic beginning at 22/0609Z. Further analysis is on-going to
determine the geoeffectiveness of this CME.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the
forecast period (23 - 25 May).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Early on 22 May, solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft increased from approximately 360
km/s to 420 km/s. Temperature and total magnetic field also
displayed a slight increase as a coronal hole high speed stream
moved into geoeffective position. The geomagnetic field responded
with active periods during the intervals 22/0300 - 0600Z and
22/1800 - 2100Z. Minor storm intervals were observed at high
latitudes from 22/1200 - 1800Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a continued chance for active
periods on day 1 (23 May) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2
(24 May) as the CH HSS effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on day 3 (25 May).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 May till 25 May
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 22 May 121 Prognoserat 23 May-25 May 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 22 May 116
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 21 May 007/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 22 May 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 013/014-007/008-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 May till 25 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
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