Viewing archive of fredag, 18 maj 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 May 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 139 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 May 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C3 at 18/0823Z from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180), which
rotated off the disk. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA
304 imagery beginning at 18/0510Z near Region 1482 (N15W17). An
associated CME was observed in STEREO A COR 2 imagery beginning at
18/0709Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of approximately 482
km/s. The majority of the ejecta appeared to be slightly north of
the ecliptic plane, however a glancing blow is likely.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare all three days
(19 - 21 May).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at
17/0200Z, reached a maximum of 20.4 pfu at 17/0230Z and ended at
17/1725Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is currently
hovering close to the 10 pfu threshold (S1).
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods on day 1 (19 May) due to a possible shock arrival from the
17 May CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (20
May). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (21 May).
There is a slight chance for shock enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV protons above 10 pfu on day 1.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 May till 21 May
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 May 132 Prognoserat 19 May-21 May 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 18 May 115
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 May 005/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 May 008/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 May till 21 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
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|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |