Viewing archive of torsdag, 26 april 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 117 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 26 Apr 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1460 (N15W93) and Region 1465 (S18W39) both produced C1 x-ray events at 25/2242Z and 26/1723Z respectively. Both had associated CMEs but neither are expected to be geoeffective. Three consecutive CMEs appeared on LASCO/C2 imagery at 26/0924Z, 26/1148Z, and 26/1638Z. All three were around the west limb and are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain low with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (27 - 29 April).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field started the period at minor storm levels, but fell to quiet levels and remained mostly quiet for the remainder of the period. This activity was attributed to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds have steadily decreased from approximately 730 km/s to approximately 560 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained fairly neutral with minor fluctuations between +3 and -5 nT. Overall, the total field fluctuated between +2 and +8 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods for day one (27 April) as CH HSS effects begin to wane. Days two and three (28 -29 April) are expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 27 Apr till 29 Apr
M-klass15%15%15%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       26 Apr 119
  Prognoserat   27 Apr-29 Apr  115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        26 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 25 Apr  018/031
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  013/017
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  007/010-004/005-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 27 Apr till 29 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%10%10%
Små stormförhållanden05%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden25%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden25%10%10%

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