Viewing archive of lördag, 7 april 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Apr 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 098 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Apr 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1452 (N17W23) produced a
C2 x-ray flare and occasional B-class flares. It gradually decayed
to a small B-type group during the period. Region 1450 (N15W59)
gradually decayed to a C-type group during the period and produced
an isolated B-class flare. However, it retained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days 1 - 3 (08 - 10 April) with isolated C-class
flares likely from Region 1452.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with minor to major storm
periods at high latitudes during 07/0900 - 1500Z. This activity was
associated with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz, enhanced IMF
Bt, and increased solar wind speeds.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels until late on day 1 (08
April). A CME passage is expected to commence late on day 1 (from
the partial-halo CME observed on 05 April). Consequently, activity
is expected to increase to unsettled levels beginning late on day 1
and continue until early on day 3 (10 April). There will also be a
chance for active levels on day 2 (09 April) along with a chance for
minor storm levels at high latitudes. Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 as CME effects
subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Apr till 10 Apr
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 Apr 099 Prognoserat 08 Apr-10 Apr 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 116
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Apr 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 07 Apr 010/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 008/010-013/015-006/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Apr till 10 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 15% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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