Viewing archive of torsdag, 15 mars 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Mar 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 075 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Mar 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1432 (N14W14)
produced an M1/1f event at 0752Z associated with a Type II radio
sweep (estimated velocity 468 km/s) and a CME visible on STEREO
Ahead and Behind. The geoeffectiveness of this CME is under review.
Region 1432 has grown into an Esi type spot group with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. New Region 1435 (S25W11) was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels for the next three days with a slight
chance for an isolated X-class flare from Region 1432.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels reaching up
to severe storm levels at high latitudes. A sudden impulse was
observed at 15/1309Z (27 nT, as measured by the Boulder
magnetometer). ACE data indicated a shock arrival at 15/1240Z.
Solar wind velocities increased to around 800 km/s following the
shock. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 13/1810Z
reached a maximum flux of 469 pfu at 13/2045Z and ended at 15/0620Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels and up to minor storm
levels at high latitudes on 16 March due to the 13 March CME effects
and the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Activity is expected to decline to quiet to unsettled
conditions on 17 March and continue declining to mostly quiet
conditions on 18 March as CME and CH HSS effects subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Mar till 18 Mar
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Mar 111 Prognoserat 16 Mar-18 Mar 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Mar 006/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Mar 021/029 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 015/020-018/010-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Mar till 18 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/18 | M1.5 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/16 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
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|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |