Viewing archive of onsdag, 14 mars 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Mar 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 074 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Mar 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1432 (N14E03)
produced an M2/1N event at 14/1521Z associated with a faint CME as
visible on LASCO C2 (plane-of-sky velocity 392 km/s) with a narrow
northeast trajectory. As of current, this CME is not expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare until
Region 1429 (N19W77) rotates behind the limb. On days 2 and 3
(16-17 March) activity is expected to decrease to low levels with a
chance for moderate flaring from Region 1432.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels reaching
active levels at high latitudes. Correction to yesterdays summary,
the greater than 100 MeV event began at 13/1810Z, reached a peak
value of 1 PFU at 13/1905Z, and ended at 13/2255Z. The 10 MeV
proton event greater than 100 PFU (S2-Moderate) event began at
13/1855Z, reached a peak value of 469 PFU at 13/2045Z, and dropped
below 100 PFU into S1-Minor threshold at 14/0955Z. The proton event
is currently around 33 PFU and gradually decreasing. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 March. Activity is expected
to increase to active levels on 16 March due to effects from the 13
March transient and a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Activity is expected to return to mostly unsettled levels on 17
March as effects from these two influences begin to wane slightly.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue to
decrease over the next three days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Mar till 17 Mar
| M-klass | 70% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 90% | 40% | 70% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 Mar 119 Prognoserat 15 Mar-17 Mar 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 14 Mar 006/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 009/015-015/020-018/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Mar till 17 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 35% | 20% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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